By Patricio Giusto*
The rhetoric of the United States in response to the threat posed by China’s unstoppable rise has escalated rapidly in recent weeks. The most visible aspect of
this dispute is the trade conflict. However, the background of this issue is much more complex. It involves ideological factors, the race for the future of technological development, and the strengthening of Chinese leadership in the Asia-Pacific region.
US President Donald Trump (L) and China’s President Xi Jinping leaving a business leaders event at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. / AFP
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Regarding the ideological factor, President Donald Trump surrounded himself with old anti-China hawks upon his arrival at the White House, including historical presidential adviser Michael Pillsbury, author of the bestseller “The Hundred-Year Marathon” (2015). In a nutshell, Pillsbury’s position is that the Chinese have an elaborate plan to dominate the world by 2050, displacing American leadership and values.
Trump, a nationalist and isolationist, became enthralled with Pillsbury’s thesis, and recommended that it be read by all military officers.
Other well-known scholars, such as Graham Allison (author of the famous book “Essence of Decision,” 1971), also believe that China, the great emerging superpower, seeks global hegemony. This would lead to an inevitable war with the United States, based on the “Thucydides Trap,” (Editors note: this is a phrase coined by Allison, that refers to when a rising power causes fear in an established power which escalates toward war).
In his recent book, “Destined for War” (2017), Allison boasts that his thesis is based on an allegedly rigorous historical study. But the selection of the cases, as well as the way they are interpreted, is, to say the least, debatable. In addition to this, the limited references to China’s history dating back almost 5,000 years, in which the Eastern power never sought hegemony and began a war only once, are striking.
U.S. President Donald Trump has become enthralled by a theses that states that China an elaborate plan to dominate the world by 2050. / REUTER
The outlook of the “Chinese threat,” which dates back to the 1990s, has been clearly reflected in Trump’s national security strategy, which was released in 2017. Along with Russia, China has been defined as a “rival power that seeks to challenge American influence and values.” This is a resounding change from previous administrations, Democratic or Republican. Generally speaking, the strategy was competition with interaction.
U.S. Vice-President Mike Pence has become the main spokesman for this new position. Last month, he gave a particularly combative speech at the Hudson Institute, directly accusing China of interfering in United States elections. His words were harshly retorted by the Chinese. At the ASEAN Summit, held a few days ago in Singapore, Pence said “…empire and aggression have no place in the Indo-Pacific,” a clear allusion to China’s growing presence in that region. He added: “If China does not change, a ‘Cold War’ will ensue.”
China, for its part, is still adhering to its long-standing policy of not confronting the United States. President Xi Jinping has stated his vision of “humanity as a community with a shared destiny,” in line with the ideas of “peaceful ascent” and “harmonious society,” which were coined during the period of his predecessor, Hu Jintao.
However, it should be noted that Xi has also made it clear that China will respond to every aggression of the United States that affects its national interests, as is the case of retaliations within the context of the trade conflict.
The big problem for the United States is that, while its criticism of China is escalating, it is also intensifying its isolationist retreat. By doing this, it is not offering its historical allies a cooperation alternative comparable to the Chinese mega-project of the New Silk Road. The “free and open Indo-Pacific” touted by the United States is, for now, just a beautiful idea. Meanwhile, China is making steady progress with huge infrastructure projects on a global scale. By the way, Latin America is one of their main destinations.
*Patricio Giusto is Director of the Chinese-Argentine Observatory, and Professor of the UCA.