By Juan Gabriel Tokatlián*
When the G-20 first began in 1999, it was a forum for finance ministers and heads of central banks to discuss the devaluations in Southeast Asia (1997),
Russia (1998) and Brazil (1999). Financial concerns were at the forefront of the unrest caused by the developments in emerging countries.
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In 2008, when it became a meeting of heads of state, the main concern was the stock market crisis in the United States. In light of the global repercussions resulting from the bursting of the housing bubble in the United States, the importance of the geo-economy became evident. The euro crisis in 2010, and the deep recession that followed, confirmed this.
As stricter financial regulations weakened, and the topic of growing inequality was shelved, other issues emerged, such as the war in Syria and terrorism, which were addressed at the 2015 summit. It should be noted that human rights have not been placed on this group’s agenda, despite the fact that this issue runs through several G-20 topics.
So, with the summit in Buenos Aires upon us, it seems evident that the priority of geopolitics will be observed with more force this time. There are a number of urgent issues that constitute the backdrop of this new G-20 summit.
If up until recently, the United States had been using a combination of competition and collaboration as a strategy to deal with China, the Presidency of Donald Trump has highlighted the competitive component. The so-called “trade war” waged by Washington against Beijing is clear: when looking back through history, it’s not surprising that a declining power embraces protectionism, while the rising power pushes for free trade. The recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, held in Papua New Guinea on November 18th, was a failure, due to a mixture of hostility (United States) and intransigence (China).
At the same time, there is growing tension between the West and Russia. Moscow’s November 25th decision to close the Kerch Strait, following a naval incident between a Ukrainian fleet and the Russian Coast Guard, signals a deepening of the conflict that started with the 2014 Crimean Crisis. A few weeks ago, Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered at the Saudi Arabian consulate in Turkey, a crime that, according to the CIA, was instigated by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This is ocurring within the context of the exacerbation of disputes in the Middle East, which can be epotimized by the re-imposition of US sanctions against Iran, and the worsening of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, among others.
In summary, Argentina’s main mission as the host of a summit whose resolution of the world’s acute global economic and environmental problems is unlikely is to help reduce any damages caused by a complex and dangerous web of geopolitical struggles.
*Full-time Professor at Di Tella University